Serbia Heads to Closely Watched Vote as Students Challenge Ruling Party

Serbia votes in a parliamentary election on Sunday that analysts describe as unlike any in the 14 years since the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) first came to power. On Thursday evening, thousands of people gathered in Belgrade for the final rally of the Student List, the group of candidates put forward by a student movement that has protested against the government for almost two years.

Many of those at the rally had walked for days to the capital from all corners of the country, turning the campaign finale into a show of solidarity and peaceful resolve. Biology student Arsa Stojanovic told the crowd that the walkers had crossed Serbia from end to end, visited villages and neighborhoods, and learned that they could count on the people. Aleksandar Cupic, a professor of transport and traffic engineering and a Student List candidate, said it "smells like freedom." The evening closed with a kolo, a traditional circle dance.

The protests began after a concrete canopy collapsed at the Novi Sad railway station in November 2024, killing 16 people. The students have presented the vote as a chance to confront corruption and demand accountability for a disaster that came to symbolize institutional failure. They have also tried to set aside the ideological, social and foreign-policy divisions that have long shaped Serbian politics.

Political scientist Dusan Spasojevic told DW these are the first elections since Aleksandar Vucic came to power in 2012 that are competitive and have an uncertain outcome. He said the movement has generated hope and substantial support, and that polls suggest it could win more than 40% of the vote.

A few kilometers away, the SNS held its own closing rally. Its message was that a vote for the party means stability, continuity and prosperity, while a change of government risks chaos. The party portrays the election as a battle for Serbia's future and sovereignty and accuses opponents of serving foreign interests. Former President Vucic told supporters that opponents had tried to destroy the country on foreign orders and had attacked the party with billions of euros.

The campaign has been overshadowed by violence. By the final week, the independent monitoring group CRTA had recorded 116 incidents of physical violence or verbal threats, including physical confrontations, attacks on campaigners and attempts to seize campaign banners. CRTA also said opposition activists, especially those linked to the Student List, faced surveillance and police questioning, and that police were sometimes slow to protect opposition candidates and supporters.

CRTA told DW the campaign has not been free or fair, pointing to a narrowing of freedoms and deepening inequality. Its report found that almost three-quarters of airtime given to political players on national television went to government representatives, while more than 80% of coverage of the Student List was negative. The Balkan Investigative Reporting Network published testimony from a former SNS member describing pressure on public-sector employees to deliver votes. DW also heard from anonymous sources that voters were offered between €30 and €150, and in some cases holiday packages for families, to vote for the SNS. Independent media have also published reports on alleged links between people connected to the party and criminal networks, though Spasojevic doubts they will change the result.

Many fear turbulence after the vote. Authorities have warned for weeks that students, allegedly aided by foreign intelligence services, are preparing street violence, and several people have been arrested on suspicion of plotting disturbances on election night. Spasojevic said a decisive win for either camp would be the best outcome, but polls point to a narrow margin and likely a post-election crisis. A narrow SNS victory, he added, would almost certainly be contested. The movement has vowed to defend every vote.

Spasojevic said the international response, particularly from the European Union, could be crucial in preventing escalation and persuading the authorities to accept defeat and avoid a heavy-handed response to protests. An EU Commission spokesperson told DW that key recommendations on improving Serbia's electoral framework remain unimplemented and stressed that democracy and the rule of law are central to the accession process. Serbia has been an EU candidate country since 2012.